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Betting on the NFL isn't necessarily easy, but making smarter bets is always possible for those motivated to learn a bit of new strategy.
Try these nine thoughtful tips when wagering at online football betting sites and watch your bankroll grow.
1. Bet With Your Head, Not Your Heart
- Money Management/Bankroll Management. When you are betting on sports you should always set.
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- Common Mistakes by Novice Sports Bettors. In Tips and Strategies. Typically in this space we focus on historically profitable betting systems, various prop betting opportunities and other tools for making sharper bets.
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In sports betting, -110 means that for every $1 a bettor wants to win, they must risk $1.10. If a bettor wanted to win $100 on -110 odds, they would need to risk $110. This odds format is known as.
It may sound obvious, but avoiding emotion when wagering remains a challenge for many bettors. We all have our personal biases. Whether it's a favorite team or one we despise, putting aside these preferences isn't easy.
But here's the thing: becoming more objective towards NFL betting online is literally the easiest way to make smarter bets. It doesn't require a detailed strategy on mathematical analysis, it just requires common sense.
Cheering on your favorite team (at least) 16 times per year is a lot of fun, but losing money in the process is not. To become a smarter bettor, be aware of your biases and try to avoid decisions based solely on favoritism.
2. Pay Attention to Where the Game Is Played
Home-field advantage matters, and it matters more at certain stadiums. For example, the New England Patriots, went 42-6 straight-up (32-14-2 ATS) at home from 2014-2018. The Seahawks also perform exceptionally well in Seattle: they are 92-31 at home since 2003.
But they're not the only two teams with such an advantage. Do your research by comparing each team's home vs. away record when handicapping for home team advantage.
West Coast teams traveling to the Eastern Time Zone tend to have less difficulty overcoming the time change, but East Coast teams are at an inherent disadvantage when forced to play on the Pacific Coast, three hours later than they're used to.
There are also teams who don't travel well. From 2014-2018 (a five-season span), the San Francisco 49ers were a terrible 9-31 on the road, third-worst in the league. They weren't much better against the spread, going 16-22-2 (fourth-worst in the NFL). The Texans also struggled to cover the spread on the road in 2016, posting a 2-6 record ATS.
Knowing where and when the teams played the previous week is also an important factor to consider. Some teams suffer from real disadvantages. West Coast teams traveling to the Eastern Time Zone tend to have less difficulty overcoming the time change, but East Coast teams are at an inherent disadvantage when forced to play on the Pacific Coast, three hours later than they're used to.
Lastly, certain dome (indoor) teams can struggle to perform outdoors. For example, Drew Brees' passer rating drops from 102.5 in a dome to 90.3 when playing outdoors. And this is all extremely useful information for bettors.
3. Know the Individual Matchups
Football is often referred to as the ultimate team sport, but there are certain one-on-one matchups that can dramatically affect the outcome of a game.
For example, a weak offensive tackle should not be expected to perform well against the premier edge-rushers in the league. Pay attention to major skill discrepancies between players who will be going head-to-head.
Coaches are perhaps the most significant head-to-head matchups that bettors should consider. Every coach uses recurring strategies that fare very well against some opponents and flop against others. Coaches get to know each other's approaches to the game, and some are better at responding to these strategic considerations.
A great example of this is Tom Coughlin and Bill Belichick. The Patriots have been dominant since Belichick has been steering the ship, but he was 2-5 when coaching against Coughlin following the 2018 season.
4. Know More than Just the Trends
When it comes to betting on NFL games, following the trends isn't a bad idea — patterns sometimes provide valuable information. For example, from 2010 to 2018, the Bears went 12-5 ATS when coming off a bye week, while the 49ers, on the other hand, were just 5-11 ATS in that same time frame.
The sharpest bettors always look at the context behind the numbers when evaluating statistical trends.
Noticing that a team just scored 49 points the previous week doesn't necessarily mean that their offense is firing on all cylinders. Go back and look at how all the points were scored. Maybe a defensive back fell down to allow a long touchdown pass. Perhaps the defense scored a couple of those touchdowns. Maybe they were just playing the Browns.
The sharpest bettors always look at the context behind the numbers.
5. Check the Injury Reports
As we mentioned, football is the ultimate team game, and small changes can throw off the entire unit. Make sure you know which players have missed practice during the week, what their status is for the upcoming game, and what role they play on the team.
Team injury reports can be a little vague, so it's always a good idea to check the Twitter accounts of beat-writers for each team. Often, they will provide a little more detail.
6. Take Caution with Divisional Matchups
Teams that play each other twice per season get to know each other very well, and even bad teams tend to dig a little deeper when they are battling a division rival.
Looking to 2016, the Jacksonville Jaguars, Chicago Bears, and San Francisco 49ers were three of the bottom-four teams in the NFL, but they all posted a 4-2 record ATS within their respective divisions.
Even though one team may appear superior on paper, divisional matchups are often much closer than anticipated. This makes the great choices to bet on the NFL point spread, but they can be risky choices on the moneyline.
7. Don't Fall in Love with Value
Betting the underdog on the moneyline can certainly pay off, but you need to consider why long odds are so long in the first place. Make sure you have very specific reasons and logic behind taking a +800 underdog on the moneyline, because you can be sure the sportsbook used reason and logic to set that moneyline in the first place.
We strongly recommend limiting parlays and teasers to 2-5 events when betting on the NFL.
You also need to be careful when constructing parlays and teasers. Don't load them up with too many events. NFL teams are generally closely-matched compared to other sports, and it's far too difficult to correctly predict the outcome of more than a handful of games. We strongly recommend limiting parlays and teasers to 2-5 events.
8. Monitor the Lines Throughout the Week
Monitoring the betting lines throughout the week is a big part of maximizing your chances. Some online books may provide more favorable NFL odds, and as the week progresses, you may find the odds change.
It's important to keep in mind the influence of public perception here. Popular teams like the Dallas Cowboys, Green Bay Packers, and New England Patriots will always have loyal supporters betting with their hearts. They're often referred to as public teams, and it's very likely they'll be more heavily favored than the statistics suggest they should be.
If you're planning on betting against the public, wait around and let emotional bettors drive the odds in your favor. Conversely, if you're planning to bet on a public team, jumping on an early line is likely the best decision.
9. Diversify Your NFL Bets
There is success to be had betting on the moneyline, the spread, and game totals. But to maximize your success, it's crucial to know all the alternative bets you can make.
Many sportsbooks will allow you to bet on alternate spreads or buy and sell points. Instead of settling for a -3.5 spread that makes you a little uncomfortable, you can opt for a -2.5 spread with a more modest payout.
Enjoy the Action this NFL Season
The strategies above are great to keep in mind while wagering this football season, but they're only a start. In the end, finding success is all about putting in the time and effort to research your pick and manage your bankroll effectively.
If you're looking to for more football action than the NFL can provide, open up your Saturdays and take a look at our intro to betting on college football for more helpful tips and tricks.
Sports betting can be one of the best ways to have fun while making money, but only if you know the tips and tricks of the trade. Unlike many other forms of betting the house only has a small advantage, making it one of the easiest gambling methods to make a profit from. To maximise your chances of success, check out the sports betting tips outlined below.
1. Smart sports betting
How To Bet On Sports Smart Watch
If you want to win like a pro, you need to think like one. An easy mistake many of us make with sports betting is by using our heart instead of our head. Instead of betting on a team purely because you support them, try to think outside the box. If the odds aren't good, don't do it. Betting on the team most likely to win doesn't make you a traitor, it makes you smart. Try to stay objective when making your bets, you might be a Man City fan betting on United, but when they make you money then you'll enjoy the last laugh.
2. Don't be afraid to lose
Accept that sometimes the team you back will lose. This sounds obvious, but it can be hard to take a defeat. What you need to remember is that even the professionals don't get it right all the time. If you manage to succeed on 50% or more of your bets then you're well on your way to raking in the cash. So when you lose let it go quickly, and focus on the next opportunity. Wallowing in a loss is one of the quickest ways for gamblers spiral into a series of bad bets. Instead use it as a learning experience to make you sharper for the future.
3. Know your sport
Don't bet on sports you don't understand. The closer you follow a sport and the more you know about the players, managers and ground, the better your odds will be. If you do feel the need to bet on a sport you don't know much about, take the lead from someone who does. Follow a pro with a verifiable record, or ask your mates who know the sport inside out.
4. Optimise online sport betting
Don't be afraid to shop around online for the best line. Limiting yourself to one betting site could be costing you dearly. Register yourself with 3-4 websites, here's a nice list of safe betting sites from Mir that can come in handy, and before you place a bet check the rates for each of them. It won't take more than a minute and you'll be amazed at how much more you could make by just utilising this simple tip.
5. Avoid the pundits picks
A rookie mistake when online sports betting is to go with the opinion of so called ‘experts' in the field. These pundits often go with the favourites, which may win, but that's not where the best profit can be made. Instead go for the underdog, look for the teams and players with best odds that are currently out of favour. Although this method doesn't always work, when it does you can make much more than by betting on the favourites.
6. Diversify your risk
In the stock market investors spread their cash across a wide variety of investments to ensure a return. This means a mixture of low risk and low profit investments, coupled with medium and high-risk investments with higher profit margins. The aim of this approach is to ensure when an investment doesn't go to plan, as inevitably some will always fail, that this loss is quickly absorbed by the winning investments. The pro's approach sports betting in very much the same way. By mixing low, medium and high risk bets you maximise your chances of making a profit.
7. Don't bet too big
It goes without saying to never bet more than you can afford, but even if you can afford a large bet, it might not be the best option. Generally punters find themselves over-betting when on a winning streak, during times like this you're the most vulnerable to making mistakes and losing a large amount of money. Remember, the fact you won the last 5 bets in a row doesn't give you a higher chance of winning this one. Luck isn't real. Try to be objective and sensible. Detach yourself as much as possible from the situation and think what you'd advise a friend or family member. There's nothing worse than investing your winning streak on a large bet and losing it all. Keep your head.
How To Bet On Sports Smart Watch
8. Don't underestimate the odds makers
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Savvy sports betters know the house always wins. They know that the professionals who make the odds are smarter at this than they are, if they weren't they'd be out of business. This respect for the odds makers ensures savvy betters don't bet too often or too much. Employ a heavy dose of scepticism whenever you find odds that seem too good to be true, do your research and only bite once you're certain the apple isn't rotten.
9. Learn to recognise value
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Always assess whether the given odds offer you any value. If the probability of a team winning isn't higher than the odds then walk away. Even a ‘dead cert' can go wrong, so if the odds are poor value then learn to sit this one out. Many rookie betters have no concept of value and as such saturate the market on poor value bets, while leaving more attractive propositions for the pros.
10. Understand basic maths
7. Don't bet too big
It goes without saying to never bet more than you can afford, but even if you can afford a large bet, it might not be the best option. Generally punters find themselves over-betting when on a winning streak, during times like this you're the most vulnerable to making mistakes and losing a large amount of money. Remember, the fact you won the last 5 bets in a row doesn't give you a higher chance of winning this one. Luck isn't real. Try to be objective and sensible. Detach yourself as much as possible from the situation and think what you'd advise a friend or family member. There's nothing worse than investing your winning streak on a large bet and losing it all. Keep your head.
How To Bet On Sports Smart Watch
8. Don't underestimate the odds makers
Free Sports Bets
Expert Handicappers Free Picks
Savvy sports betters know the house always wins. They know that the professionals who make the odds are smarter at this than they are, if they weren't they'd be out of business. This respect for the odds makers ensures savvy betters don't bet too often or too much. Employ a heavy dose of scepticism whenever you find odds that seem too good to be true, do your research and only bite once you're certain the apple isn't rotten.
9. Learn to recognise value
Bet Online
Always assess whether the given odds offer you any value. If the probability of a team winning isn't higher than the odds then walk away. Even a ‘dead cert' can go wrong, so if the odds are poor value then learn to sit this one out. Many rookie betters have no concept of value and as such saturate the market on poor value bets, while leaving more attractive propositions for the pros.
10. Understand basic maths
Bet On Sports Ag
This the one time your GCSE maths might actually come in useful. Unless you understand what odds equate to in terms of probability, you can't accurately assess the value of a bet. Sports betting is a numbers game and failure to grasp the basics could leave you out of pocket.
